National Average Sentence
22.9 months
FY2024 · 362 cases
Violent Crime
Arson
National federal sentencing data · FY2015–FY2024 · Source: USSC
For educational and research purposes only. Not legal advice.
22.9
Avg Months (FY2024)
362
Cases (FY2024)
6%
Within Guidelines
84%
Guilty Pleas
National Trends (FY2015–FY2024)
| Year | Cases | Avg (mo) | GL Min | GL Max | Within GL | Above GL | Below GL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2024 | 362 | 22.9 | 38.1 | 45.4 | 6% | 7% | 0% |
| FY2023 | 366 | 26.4 | 42.0 | 49.4 | 1% | 5% | 0% |
| FY2022 | 360 | 24.0 | 45.3 | 45.0 | 1% | 4% | 0% |
| FY2021 | 247 | 25.6 | 38.8 | 47.2 | 3% | 4% | 0% |
| FY2020 | 239 | 21.5 | 37.5 | 42.7 | 0% | 5% | 0% |
| FY2019 | 341 | 28.5 | 41.1 | 49.0 | 2% | 6% | 0% |
| FY2018 | 317 | 28.9 | 39.7 | 47.7 | 0% | 6% | 0% |
Guidelines Compliance (FY2024)
Within Guidelines 6%
21 cases
Above Guidelines 7%
27 cases
Below Guidelines 0%
0 cases
About This Offense
Arson is categorized under Violent Crime in the USSC guidelines. Sentencing ranges depend on the specific offense level, criminal history category, and applicable adjustments.
Arson — Top District Disparities (FY2024)
Guideline Compliance
6%
Within USSC range
Guideline Adherence
Within Guidelines 6.0%
21 cases
Above Guidelines 7.0%
27 upward departures
Below Guidelines 0.0%
0 downward departures
District Comparison (FY2024)
Average sentences for Arson by district. Districts with fewer than 5 cases excluded.
| District | Cases | Avg (mo) | vs. National |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas | 2 | 54.0 | +135.8% |
| Connecticut | 1 | 48.0 | +109.6% |
| Western Arkansas | 3 | 39.7 | +73.2% |
| Northern Alabama | 15 | 36.8 | +60.6% |
| Guam | 1 | 36.0 | +57.2% |
| Southern Alabama | 3 | 34.7 | +51.4% |
| Virgin Islands | 14 | 33.1 | +44.6% |
| Eastern Kentucky | 1 | 33.0 | +44.1% |
| Central Illinois | 17 | 32.6 | +42.4% |
| Middle Alabama | 20 | 29.3 | +27.8% |
| Southern Texas | 10 | 28.5 | +24.5% |
| Southern New York | 31 | 28.3 | +23.7% |
| Western Pennsylvania | 14 | 28.3 | +23.5% |
| Rhode Island | 7 | 27.6 | +20.4% |
| Northern New York | 26 | 25.3 | +10.4% |
| Eastern Arkansas | 8 | 25.0 | +9.2% |
| Western North Carolina | 7 | 24.6 | +7.4% |
| Middle Louisiana | 1 | 24.0 | +4.8% |
| Idaho | 2 | 24.0 | +4.8% |
| Northern Texas | 17 | 22.9 | -0.1% |
What the Arson Sentencing Data Shows
Across all federal district courts in FY2024, Arson offenses produced 362 sentenced cases with a national average imposed sentence of 22.9 months. The applicable guideline range for these cases averaged 38.1 months at the low end and 45.4 months at the high end, placing the actual mean sentence below the average guideline window. This offense category is classified by the USSC under Violent Crime.
Guideline compliance for Arson broke down as follows in FY2024: 6% of sentences landed within the prescribed range, 7% were above-guideline (upward departures or variances), and 0% were below-guideline. Guilty pleas resolved 84% of cases, a metric that reflects how few federal defendants in this offense category proceed to trial. Below-guideline sentences are typically the result of either government-sponsored departures (such as substantial assistance under USSG §5K1.1) or judge-initiated variances under 18 U.S.C. § 3553(a), a framework formalized after United States v. Booker (2005).
District-level variation is the key signal beneath these national numbers: across the 20 districts with at least 5 cases in FY2024, the district comparison table above shows how average sentences for Arson diverge from the national benchmark. Because individual sentencing outcomes depend on the defendant's criminal history category, offense-level adjustments, the specific statutes of conviction, and any cooperation, these aggregate figures describe patterns, not predictions for any single case. This data is presented for research and educational purposes only and is not legal advice.
Nearby Offenses in the Violent Crime Category
Related federal offenses with the same USSC classification. Compare sentencing patterns across similar crimes.
Source: United States Sentencing Commission (USSC), Individual Offender Datafiles, FY2015–FY2024.
Source: USSC Commission Datafiles · How we compute these metrics
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the average federal sentence for Arson?
In FY2024, the national average federal sentence for Arson was 22.9 months, based on 362 cases. Actual sentences vary by district, criminal history, and specific offense characteristics.
How often do Arson sentences follow the guidelines?
In FY2024, 6% of Arson sentences fell within the federal guidelines range. 7% received above-guideline sentences (upward departures) and 0% received below-guideline sentences (downward departures).
Which districts have the harshest sentences for Arson?
Sentencing severity for Arson varies significantly by federal district. The district comparison table on this page shows the top 20 districts with the highest average sentences, along with each district's deviation from the national average. Districts with fewer than 5 cases are excluded for statistical reliability.
What are the federal sentencing guidelines for Arson?
The U.S. Sentencing Commission sets guideline ranges based on offense level and criminal history category. For Arson, the guidelines provide a recommended sentencing range, but after United States v. Booker (2005), judges may depart from these ranges citing 18 U.S.C. § 3553(a) factors.
Where does the Arson sentencing data come from?
All sentencing data comes from the United States Sentencing Commission (USSC) Individual Offender Datafiles, covering fiscal years 2015 through 2024. The USSC collects case-level data from all federal courts nationwide, providing the most comprehensive view of federal sentencing outcomes.
What is the difference between a departure and a variance?
A departure is a sentence outside the guideline range based on factors the guidelines themselves authorize (e.g., substantial assistance). A variance is imposed under 18 U.S.C. § 3553(a), where the judge finds the guidelines range itself is inappropriate. Both result in above- or below-guideline sentences.
Learn More About Federal Sentencing
Understanding Federal Sentencing
How federal sentencing guidelines work, from offense levels to criminal history categories.
Sentencing Disparity Explained
What drives differences in sentencing outcomes between federal districts.
Reading Sentencing Data
How to interpret the statistics and comparisons in PlainSentencing.
Read our methodology — how this data is sourced, computed, and verified.