Violent Crime · National · FY2015–FY2025
Arson
35% of classifiable Arson sentences landed below the guideline range - rarer below-guideline share (≤ 44%).
- 71.9
- Avg months FY2025
- above the national average
- 77
- Federal cases
- 52%
- Within guidelines
- typical guideline adherence
- 86%
- Guilty plea
Departure profile · Arson FY2025
35% of classifiable Arson outcomes landed below guidelines (rarer below-guideline share (≤ 44%)). Case-level mean OL 4.1 · mean CH 0.95 across 77 USSC rows, the departure share is the sheet signature.
The verdict
According to the U.S. Sentencing Commission FY2025 Individual Offender Datafiles, Arson ranks #26 of 30 by caseload (77 cases) and #10 of 30 by average sentence (71.9 months).
- #26
- Caseload of 30
- #10
- Avg sentence of 30
- 71.9 months
- This offense avg FY2025
- 77
- This offense cases FY2025
Caseload rank covers every district with at least one FY case. Average-sentence rank covers districts with at least 100 cases so a thin docket cannot top the list. Offense ranks cover the 30 published guideline types. Averages follow offense mix, not court character.
Arson FY2024→FY2025: +3.5 mo
| Year | Cases | Avg (mo) | GL Min | GL Max | Within GL | Above GL | Below GL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | 77 | 71.9 | 71.2 | 86.7 | 52% | 13% | 35% |
| FY2024 | 84 | 68.4 | 70.1 | 80.3 | 42% | 20% | 38% |
| FY2023 | 105 | 60.1 | 63.9 | 72.5 | 46% | 13% | 42% |
| FY2022 | 105 | 48.0 | 152.9 | 65.2 | 42% | 9% | 48% |
| FY2021 | 79 | 66.6 | 69.4 | 78.3 | 47% | 10% | 43% |
| FY2020 | 48 | 81.0 | 290.3 | 86.8 | 46% | 13% | 41% |
| FY2019 | 66 | 79.0 | 80.2 | 91.5 | 50% | 13% | 38% |
| FY2018 | 55 | 67.8 | 68.4 | 76.5 | 42% | 17% | 42% |
Arson · hardest district slice
Among districts with ≥5 FY2025 cases, Southern Georgia posts the longest average (512.5 mo, 2 cases , +612.8% vs national).
Where arson sentences sit among all federal sentences (FY2025)
Each bar counts imposed federal prison terms in that length band; the marker is this offense's average.
72 76th percentile longer than 76% of 61,431 federal sentences
Each bar is a band; taller bars hold more federal sentences. The dashed line + filled bar mark this entry. Hover or tap any bar for its full count, share, and where it sits relative to this entry.
Source U.S. Sentencing Commission, Individual Offender Datafiles · FY2025
Arson - Top District Disparities (FY2025)
District Comparison (FY2025)
Districts with ≥5 FY2025 Arson cases. Averages still mix case factors (history, quantity, cooperation).
| District | Cases | Avg (mo) | vs. National |
|---|---|---|---|
| Southern Georgia | 2 | 512.5 | +612.8% |
| Arizona | 2 | 254.5 | +254.0% |
| Northern California | 1 | 235.0 | +226.8% |
| Eastern Kentucky | 1 | 137.0 | +90.5% |
| Maryland | 1 | 121.0 | +68.3% |
| New Mexico | 1 | 117.0 | +62.7% |
| Middle Alabama | 1 | 108.0 | +50.2% |
| Southern Illinois | 2 | 107.5 | +49.5% |
| Western Washington | 2 | 102.0 | +41.9% |
| Southern Indiana | 1 | 96.0 | +33.5% |
| District of Columbia | 1 | 84.0 | +16.8% |
| Rhode Island | 1 | 78.0 | +8.5% |
| Eastern Arkansas | 2 | 77.5 | +7.8% |
| Western Oklahoma | 3 | 75.3 | +4.8% |
| Northern Oklahoma | 1 | 71.0 | -1.3% |
| Southern California | 1 | 70.0 | -2.6% |
| Western Tennessee | 2 | 65.0 | -9.6% |
| Nebraska | 1 | 60.0 | -16.6% |
| Minnesota | 1 | 60.0 | -16.6% |
| Eastern Tennessee | 1 | 60.0 | -16.6% |
Nationwide peers · caseload or average sentence
Similar FY caseload
Nearest by ABS(77 cases).
- Forgery/Counterfeiting/Copyright · 83 cases · Fraud/Financial
- Commercialized Vice · 88 cases · Other
- Manslaughter · 94 cases · Violent Crime
- Extortion/Racketeering · 57 cases · Violent Crime
Similar average sentence
Nearest nationwide offense types by ABS(71.9 mo here; ≥50-case types).
- Individual Rights · 74.2 mo avg · Other
- Money Laundering · 68.4 mo avg · Fraud/Financial
- Assault · 82.3 mo avg · Violent Crime
- Extortion/Racketeering · 60.3 mo avg · Violent Crime
Same-category peers · Violent Crime
Source: United States Sentencing Commission (USSC), Individual Offender Datafiles, FY2015–FY2025 · Methodology
What the Arson data shows
In FY2025, 77 federal defendants were sentenced for arson, with an average sentence of 71.9 months -- 20.0 months above the national average across all offenses.
- 52% of arson sentences in FY2025 fell within the guideline range, with 35% below (downward departures or variances, often for cooperation). The below-range rate reflects how frequently prosecutors offer departure motions for substantial assistance. How the guidelines work
- The highest-average district for arson in FY2025 was Southern Georgia, averaging 512.5 months -- 440.6 months above the national average. Case-specific factors within this offense (criminal history, quantity or aggravating circumstances, cooperation) drive that gap as much as any district-level pattern; the comparison below shows the full spread. Southern Georgia data
- The average sentence for arson has risen 4.1 months since FY2018 (FY2018: 67.8 mo; FY2025: 71.9 mo). The trend chart above compares actual sentences against the guideline midpoint each year. Post-Booker sentencing trends
Descriptive USSC aggregates, not legal advice; individual sentences depend on case-specific facts.
PlainSentencing is rendered directly from the United States Sentencing Commission Individual Offender Datafiles, no number is typed in by an editor. See our editorial standards & corrections policy, the methodology behind these numbers, or report a data error. Data current as of August 2026.
Read our methodology - how this data is sourced, computed, and verified. Report a data issue on this page.